Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Two events are independent if the probability of the first event happening has no impact on the probability of the second event happening. For example, the probability of rolling a 6 on a die will not ...

A tree diagram is helpful for working with event intersections and conditional probabilities. A tree consists of nodes and branches representing different stages in an experiment. Tree 1 shows an ...

We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.

Mathematics Education, Faculty of Mathematics, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany In their research articles, scholars often use 2 × 2 tables or tree diagrams including natural frequencies ...

In decision modeling with influence diagrams, the most challenging task is probability elicitation from domain experts. It is usually very difficult for experts to directly assign precise ...